Jets players who may regress in upcoming NHL season

Two player come to mind when you think of possible regression for the upcoming season. Both Vladislav Namestnikov, and Alex Iafallo had a good 2023 seasons for the Jets, but could see there numbers drop this upcoming year.

Vladislav Namestnikov could be a game-changer for the Jets in 2024-25. He had one of his best offensive seasons for Winnipeg during the regular season last year. And he should receive every opportunity this upcoming campaign to continue playing well in a major role.

However, it is worth pointing out that this goes both ways in Namestinkov's case. The upcoming free agent is also a prime regression candidate. He scored 11 goals and 37 points in the 2023-24 regular season. These totals represent his highest goal total since 2021-22 and his highest point total since 2018-19.

The veteran forward skater had a higher GAR than any other Jets player. Additionally, his 2.2 WAR came in as the highest WAR among Winnipeg's skaters. The only players to beat these numbers are goalies Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit.

In saying this, Namestnikov vastly outperformed his expected analytics. His 13.5 Goals Above Replacement are well above his xGAR of 2.0. Additionally, his xWAR (0.3) is significantly lower than the 2.2 WAR he recorded this past season.

Namestinkov can absolutely be a valuable player even with regression involved. However, it could be a bit of a steep drop for the former first-round pick. It'll certainly be interesting to see how he performs for the Jets in the year ahead.

Alex Iafallo came to the Jets as part of the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade with the Los Angeles Kings. Iafallo emerged as a solid bottom-six center for the Kings during his time in California. And in Winnipeg, he provided a lot of value down the lineup for his new team.

Iafallo saw his offensive impact fall off a cliff after this trade. However, he played incredibly well defensively. The Eden, New York native finished with 6.8 Defensive Goals Above Replacement in 2023-24, according to Evolving Hockey. This was the highest DGAR of any Jets skater during the regular season.

In saying this, there exists evidence that his defensive impact could fall off a little bit in 2024-25. While Iafallo had an impressive 1.53 Goals Against Per 60 Minutes at 5v5, he did outperform his expected total. His xGA/60 was 2.17, which is still a fine total but a notable difference nonetheless.

Regression does not automatically mean that a player will become bad. It simply means that the production they put up in one season may be notably difference in years following. Iafallo should certainly be helpful for the Jets, but his production could take a hit in the year ahead.

Even with both players showing signs of potential regression, there value to the team in other areas on the ice can still be vital to them both being factors for the teams success moving forward throughout the 2024-25 season for the Winnipeg Jets.